The biggest winners on free agency day are usually the teams that don’t participate. It’s a day filled with mistakes and regrets, and yesterday’s binge felt like one of the most reckless in recent memory.
All year we were collectively gaslit by league sources about the importance of cap space in a flat cap world, only to see front offices around the league douse that space with gasoline and light it on fire. Some players will be worth the price tag in Year 1, but for the majority, that’s where the value ends. Considering the term given out on some deals — especially for players that don’t move the needle — there are going to be some serious headaches sooner rather than later. Front offices collectively spent $766 million in one day on a number of deals that will likely age poorly. They almost always do and this year doesn’t feel like it’ll be any different.
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The free-agent frenzy was a nice lesson on supply and demand, with demand for tomorrow’s problems being curiously high. Yes, free agency is the only real avenue to improve a team without giving up any assets, but that ignores that cap space is an asset — something that was repeatedly stated throughout the season. It didn’t seem like it yesterday as front offices everywhere indeed went into a frenzy, lacking any imagination or patience with regard to team building. Everyone knows the path to contention doesn’t go through free agency until the day free agency opens and minds are collectively lost.
It was a bizarre day filled with very few deals that look like net positives. This was supposed to be a column on the best and worst deals from the first day of free agency, but as you can imagine, there’ll be a much larger focus on the latter.
The “Best” Deals
There weren’t many Actually Good signings, but some were better than others enough to count and there were a number of cheap deals with some promise. Before we get to the trainwreck, here are some of the bright moments from the opening day of the frenzy.
Dougie Hamilton: It’s not often the most lucrative contract of the day is the best one. Generally, there’s a good chance it’s the worst. That’s not the case with Hamilton, who has long been underrated by Hockey Men everywhere and is now on a potential good value deal as a result. That he was paid $500,000 per season less than Seth Jones is truly bewildering given the past two seasons for both players. Hamilton is better than Jones. Full stop. There was maybe an argument for it before last season, but not anymore. I will not be listening to anything suggesting the contrary.
At $9 million per, the expectation for Hamilton is to be a two-win defender through the life of the deal. He’s at 3.2 wins to start and should be worth 2.6 on average when taking his age into consideration, giving him a strong cushion to be worth his lofty price tag. He’s a unique player with only one comp so it’s hard to judge exactly how he’ll age, but that one comp is Brent Burns who was still pretty damn effective in his early 30s.
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There is a good chance public models overrate Hamilton’s impact and I don’t want to downplay that. But everywhere he goes and plays, he earns elite results and that’s been at both ends of the ice the last two seasons. Hamilton finished fourth in Norris Trophy voting last season and should continue to be in contention for the next few years. He’s a true No. 1 defenceman, an elite one at that, and that’s worth the price of admission here.
Hamilton’s deal comes in with a surplus value of $18.8 million over the life of the deal leaving plenty of room for error if the model is indeed overrating him. It’s also far and away the most surplus value of any deal on the day. The Devils benefit greatly from an unfair and undeserved reputation. Hamilton is the real deal.
Zach Hyman: There has been a lot of Hyman slander given how much his new extension is worth and it’s somewhat warranted given his injury history and the wear on his body. But he’s a lot better than he’s given credit for and the cap hit is low enough that he should be able to provide positive value over the front half of the deal. On a line with either Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, it’ll be difficult not to.
Hyman has proven he plays very well with star players, the guy who does the necessary dirty work in order to drive play. He’s a perfect third wheel and has plenty of comps that filled a similar role: Patrick Sharp, Alex Burrows, Patric Hornqvist, Chris Kunitz, Scott Hartnell, Justin Williams. His on-ice metrics are routinely good and he has the ability to score at a 30-goal, 60-point pace with limited power play time. For $5.5 million, teams can do a lot worse … if he ages somewhat gracefully. Big if.
Is this a good deal? No, and there’s a fair bit of downside from his comps suggesting Hyman can fall off at any moment. But for now, it’s a fair deal that could go either way, with Hyman having a 53 percent chance of providing positive value. On free agency day, considering how awful everything else looks, that’s a win.
Nick Bonino: Just $2.1 million for Bonino? That’s a nice add for a depth center, going against the grain relative to what every other depth center received. Bonino has the ability to score at a top-six rate while being a positive player at five-on-five which is difficult to find from a bottom six-piece. Over the last two years, he’s 76th in relative expected goal difference.
Age is obviously a concern, but at that price tag, there’s a good chance he’s well worth it. San Jose’s depth forwards were a big problem last year and Bonino should help alleviate some of the issues there. He’s projected to be worth one win, which is a steal at just over $2 million.
Ryan Suter: Even putting Suter’s deal here feels wrong because that fourth year has the potential to be a disaster. Very few of his comps made it that far, making it a risk, but the cap hit is modest enough to be worth it. Suter is projected to provide top pair value for one more season and though there’s a chance that’s inflated by playing with Jared Spurgeon, he’s going to a team that can insulate him just as well. It’s a really good fit.
Like Hyman, this is closer to a fair deal than an outright win, but looking at what other defencemen earned makes this look like a steal. I mean, Suter or Cody Ceci? The choice should be obvious.
Antti Raanta: The only goalie mentioned because, to be honest, I’m not really sure how to evaluate goalie contracts when their value is all over the map from year to year. Based on the deals given out this year it feels like there’s a hierarchy that goes something like this, give or take a million or so.
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Starter: $6 million
Tandem: $4 million
Backup: $2 million
Raanta got paid like a backup, less than Laurent Brossoit or James Reimer, but there’s an argument to be made he’s tandem-level when healthy. Perhaps the “when healthy” is the issue, but his 2019-20 numbers were inspiring enough to believe the Hurricanes made a good bet here. If he can bounce back to that level, that contract will look like a bargain.
Keith Yandle (Sam Navarro / USA Today)
The Scrap Heap
Every year some of the best contracts come in at a low price tag as they carry almost no risk and have the potential to surprise. We usually have to wait until later for those gems, but there were some good ones signed on opening day.
Keith Yandle: A legit power play quarterback for $900,000 is a steal, even if his five-on-five acumen is weak. Yandle did really well in sheltered minutes last year and should be a good fit in Philadelphia.
Michael Bunting: No, Bunting won’t score on 26 percent of his shots forever, but that he did is alluring and his AHL numbers aren’t bad. He held his own in terms of play-driving and wasn’t completely sheltered considering he averaged nearly 17 minutes per night. A worthy flier, especially since his contract is easy to bury if it doesn’t work.
Frederick Gaudreau: Had extremely good underlying numbers in 2018-19 with Nashville and did it again in Pittsburgh two years later. At a low price, that skill set offers very serviceable depth for the Wild.
Derek Ryan: He’s old and wasn’t exactly beloved by his last team, but his defensive numbers are very strong and the price is modest. Ryan may fall a cliff at a moment’s notice, but he’s exactly the type of player the Oilers need in their bottom six.
Mark Pysyk: Back to being an analytics darling in Dallas, though he played extremely sheltered minutes. A fine bet for Buffalo at a low price to see if he can be more at this stage of his career — which in turn might be worth a deadline asset to another team.
The Worst Deals
Yesterday was a disaster and there are two key clusters that drove that: depth centers and depth defencemen. GMs went overboard filling positional needs, paying a steep price to fill those roles without much care for whether those players actually provide much value. There were other deals for mid-level players that likely won’t age well, but we’ll start with the two big groups.
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Overpriced Depth Centers
Four centers whose combined value for next season is minus-one win and who will cost $10 million collectively next season. Three of them are below replacement level, so I guess that’s the going rate for those types.
Sean Kuraly: Has declined severely since being an asset during Boston’s Cup Final run in 2018-19. For $2.5 million, the Jackets are paying for a guy who has been 0.4 expected goals per 60 worse than his teammates the last two seasons and even more of a liability in terms of actual goals. His relative defensive numbers are especially bad and he was one of the least productive forwards last season.
Alex Wennberg: Seattle needs centers, but this ain’t it. I don’t really get the fascination with Wennberg for him to net a $4.5 million AAV on a three-year deal. Last year’s scoring looks like a flash in the pan buoyed by playing with Jonathan Huberdeau and his relative expected goals rate has been negative in six of his seven seasons. Extreme Artem Anisimov energy.
David Kampf: Considering the price for Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Derek Ryan, I’m not entirely sure why Toronto spent a little more for Kampf other than “he’s younger.” His projected value is well in the negatives, which means anything above league minimum is a choice to add negative value. No discernible offensive ability whatsoever and his defensive impact looks negligible.
Luke Glendening: Hockey Men love this man more than their own children it seems, but every time he’s out there it’s nothing but pain for the Red Wings. The minutes he plays are tough, but they are also disastrous. Over the last three seasons, he has had a 41 percent expected and actual goals rate. Why pay anything above league minimum for that? If every dollar counts in a flat cap world, there shouldn’t be any premium on Glendening.
Overpriced Depth Defencemen
This was the big one as each new defenceman deal seemed more absurd than the next. It’s like the only thing that each front office looked at was each player’s height and weight, with little regard for how the players actually utilize their size. It was absolutely mind-blowing seeing not only the dollars, but the term thrown around for defencemen yesterday. Demand was obviously very high, but I highly doubt it’ll be worth the exorbitant cost.
David Savard: The analytics crowd has long been ardent supporters of Savard’s game, but over the last few years it’s hard to shake the disconnect between his expected and actual results: a 52 percent expected goals rate and 47 percent actual goals rate. In both regards, last year was Savard’s worst in a while with a 46 percent expected goals rate and just 25 percent of the actual goals. That’s probably bad luck more than anything, but the declining scoring chance numbers at his age are cause for concern. I don’t think he’s a top-four defender anymore and at his age, a four-year deal carries a lot of unnecessary risk. He’s already not worth $3.5 million, what’s he going to be worth at 34? Savard’s best comps are Roman Polak, Braydon Coburn and Alexei Emelin. There’s value in those types, but not if a team is paying them to be a top-four defender. Savard likely isn’t that anymore.
Derek Forbort: The Jets defence was terrible last year and Forbort was part of the problem. It’s easy to look at his ice time and say “well, the coach trusted him”, but in Winnipeg it’s not like there was much competition. He can suppress chances decently and may be an asset for Boston in that regard in a more sheltered role, but it comes at a cost on offence where he provides next to nothing. To be honest, I want to see him play on a pair with Brandon Carlo just to see the offensive zone implode. That would be worth $3 million to me.
Tucker Poolman: Of all the deals signed yesterday, Poolman’s was the most unfathomable. It’s never a good sign when a deal needs to be clarified with “that’s per year” and that was the case for Poolman. He’s closer to be being worth $700,000 per year than $2.5 million given he’s a liability at both ends of the ice. He doesn’t belong anywhere near a top-four role and it’s unfathomable to me that two different teams watched Winnipeg last year, saw the team’s defence corps, and said “yes, please give me that for three-to-four years for too much money.”
Cody Ceci: He’s not as bad as he’s made out to be, but how on Earth is he making second pair money for four years? Cody Ceci. How.
The easy way to recognize how out of whack all this is, is to compare other contracts into units of Ceci. Would you rather have one Hamilton or three Cecis? How about 1.69 Cecis vs. one Hyman? There are times where I think the league is getting smarter and then something like this happens. That Edmonton traded Ethan Bear, who makes $1.25 million less to be better than Ceci, is the icing on top.
The rest
Some other deals that stuck out for players that are varying levels of useful now, but may not be by the time the contract is in its back half. Not at the price tag anyway.
Brock McGinn: Pittsburgh got out of the Brandon Tanev deal somehow, only to commit themselves to a much worse fourth-line forward for four years at nearly $2.75 million. Jared McCann, who makes $190,000 more, was traded for expansion reasons to make room for this. One scored at a 61-point pace last year, the other wasn’t even at half of that. He plays with jam, though, so I guess that’s worth putting a burden on your cap, despite McGinn-types being a dime-a-dozen.
Mikael Granlund: I’ve always had a lot of time for Granlund (and that will be a common theme for the remaining players mentioned) in his Minnesota days, but he’s been a shade of that in Nashville. His decline has been rapid where he’s now a second-line scorer with negative play-driving impacts.
That’s not worth $5 million now barring a large bounce-back and things only get worse from there given his comps have a pretty harsh aging profile. Granlund was Nashville’s most used forward last season and that he only managed a 43-point pace is alarming. In 130 games as a Predator, he has just 62 points.
Nick Foligno: It’s the second year that’s really bothersome here as Foligno was already showing strong signs of degradation last season. After being a strong defensive top-six winger for years, his game fell apart last season where he was worth closer to 0.4 wins per 82 — a third line rate. His deal isn’t too bad for that for this coming year, but there’s a strong chance it’s a burden next season as not many of his comps made it that far. There isn’t much upside here. Given the injury troubles he dealt with last year already, it’s hard to see a return to form for Foligno. His deal is an overpay for what he is now.
Blake Coleman: It pains me to have Coleman on this list as I’m a big fan of his game and think he’s a very strong player — but six years is a very long time. He’s arguably worth the cap hit now and he may be worth it next year, especially if he takes on a bigger role in Calgary’s top six, but the clock is already ticking. He plays a heavy game that is difficult to see aging well for six years, and his current value isn’t high enough to offset that process. He’s a 45-point player with strong, but not elite play-driving impacts.
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That may change if he plays with skilled players in Calgary’s top six, though, and there is a two-win upside for the next three years which would put him in the low-end, top-line territory. Based on the current information we have it still does look like Calgary overpaid for championship pedigree. The key is finding the next Coleman on a bargain deal at the deadline as Tampa Bay did, not overpay during free agency. These types of free agency buys are usually ones that teams regret sooner rather than later, a painful sentence to type as a member of the Coleman Crew.
Jaden Schwartz: He fits Seattle’s identity of defensive-minded players and is currently worth the $5.5 million cap hit, but for how much longer is the question. With a five-year term, the deal gets riskier and riskier with each passing year, especially if Schwartz’s scoring decline is real. In two of the past three seasons, he’s scored close to a 40-point pace, which is not ideal for the price tag.
Two of his top comps are Kyle Okposo and Loui Eriksson, two mid-level wingers who looked worth it on Day 1, but quickly fell into the abyss of negative value on a new team. Schwartz may suffer the same fate if he ages close to his cohorts. He projects to be a top-six winger for the next two seasons, but there’s a dropoff after that which is why the deal lands here.
Mike Hoffman: He does exactly one thing well: score goals on the power play. That might play well in Montreal for now as a Shea Weber one-timer replacement, but his inability to handle even-strength minutes will be an issue. He’s had a negative expected goals impact in five straight seasons, with last year’s being the ugliest. For someone who earns so many points, he doesn’t exactly drive offence at five-on-five, which is a major concern for a scorer. His points are empty-calorie.
It’s not a profile that ages gracefully, either. Based on his best comps, Hoffman’s deal will be below average in Year 1 and will become a problem in the two years afterward. In Year 3, he projects to be a replacement level player, providing value $3.3 million less than his cap hit.
(Photo: Scott Rovak / NHLI via Getty Images)
