OU ranked No. 8 in ESPN's 2024 Football Power Index release; OSU comes in at No. 26 (2024)

ESPN released its football power index (FPI) for the 2024 season on Monday and "The Worldwide Leader in Sports" is fairly high on Oklahoma going into its first season in the Southeastern Conference.

Coach Brent Venables and the Sooners received a 17.2 FPI rating and have the eighth-best odds of winning the national championship, according to ESPN Analytics.

OU is ranked eighth behind Georgia (26.8), Oregon (24.5), Texas (22.9), Ohio State (22.2), Alabama (21.9), Penn State (19.8) and Notre Dame (19.0) in FPI rating.

What is ESPN FPI?

Per ESPN’s explanation, the FPI is “a power rating that tracks each team's strength relative to an average FBS squad. Teams are rated on offense, defense and special teams, with the values representing points per game.

“Those numbers are then used to simulate the season schedule 20,000 times, including the conference championships and the CFP bracket, simulating the selection process using an algorithm that mimics the way the committee typically picks teams.

“Finally, once we have those results, we can say how often each team wins its conference, makes the Playoff and achieves other milestones.”

So, going into the 2024 slate, the Sooners are considered 17.2 points better than the average team and are ranked the fourth-best team in the SEC by ESPN analytics.

That’s pretty good for a program going into what’s proclaimed the toughest conference in college football with a first-year starting quarterback in Jackson Arnold.

ESPN projects 8.3 wins for the Sooners along with a 36.8% chance to make the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff and 3% odds to win the whole thing.

CFP and national title odds

Georgia was assessed 78.7% odds of making the CFP, followed by Oregon (75.6%), Texas (67.7%), Ohio State (66.8%), Notre Dame (59.5%), Penn State (58.9%), Alabama (56.7%), Missouri (37.2%) and OU (36.8%).

The FPI gave the SEC an overwhelming 52.5% chance of producing the national champion with Georgia the favorite at 20.7% odds.

Oregon, led by former OU quarterback Dillon Gabriel, was given 12.9% championship odds, followed by Texas (11.7%), Ohio State (10.2%), Alabama (8.4%), Penn State (6.7%), Notre Dame (5.1%) and the Sooners (3.0%).

Analyzing the Sooners’ schedule

OU will have the opportunity to improve its FPI rating, playoff and title odds with potential swing games against higher-rated Texas and Alabama during the regular season.

Winning those games could also position the Sooners for an SEC championship game battle with national championship favorite Georgia.

There are other games on the Sooners’ schedule that could flip their fortunes the other way, though.

They have to face Tennessee, which is No. 9 in FPI rating (16.6) and has the 10th best Playoff chances (36.6%) and championship odds (2.6%).

The Sooners will also have to go on the road to battle Missouri, LSU, Ole Miss and Auburn.

Missouri is No. 10 in FPI rating (15.4) and championship odds (2.2%) and is eighth in Playoff percentage (37.2%).

LSU is No. 13 in FPI rating (14.6) and 14th in Playoff odds (24.9%) and championship odds (1.4%).

Ole Miss is No. 16 in FPI (12.0) and Auburn is No. 19 (10.1).

OU will play in big games

Within the Top 20 projected FPI teams, OU is projected to have the 10th-best offense (8.1), the eighth best defense (9.3) and the 17th-best special teams (-0.1).

To quantify the “biggest games in the 2024 season” ESPN combined opposing teams’ offensive, defensive, special teams and FPI ratings into one game rating. OU will participate in five of the Top 20 most crucial games.

OU-Texas is the fifth-most important game of the season based on the teams’ combined rating of 93.8. OU’s game against Alabama is the seventh-biggest game in 2024 based on combined rating (91.9).

Oklahoma’s game against Tennessee ranks 17th-most important (87.3), its game at Missouri is tied for 18th (87.2) and its game at LSU is 20th (86.2).

Another way ESPN quantified the importance of games was using a “leverage” feature in its simulators, “which measures the average change in probability (whether that be national title odds, playoff odds, conference title odds, etc.) for both teams depending on whether they win or lose a given game.”

OU’s game against Alabama has the seventh-highest leverage of any game in 2024 in terms of which one of them makes the CFP (34.6%). The Red River Showdown against UT has the eighth-highest leverage (34.4%).

The Sooners’ matchup with Tennessee has the ninth-most leverage (34.2%) and OU’s road contest at Missouri has the 10th-most leverage (33.7%).

Is OU overrated?

All of OU’s FPI measures are very optimistic, considering how much stronger the Sooners’ schedule is becoming this year and how much change they’ve undergone since last fall.

In ESPN college football writer Adam Rittenberg’s eyes, the FPI is overvaluing the Sooners ahead of the 2024 season.

“Oklahoma at No. 8 wouldn't concern me as much if the Sooners were staying in the Big 12, rather than moving to the SEC,” he wrote.“The combination of a young quarterback (Jackson Arnold), two new primary coordinators (Seth Littrell and Zac Alley), a defense that hasn't really found its way under coach Brent Venables and a schedule that features Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee and Missouri, in addition to rival Texas, sets off a few alarm bells.

“Oklahoma has done well in the portal and returns some star power on defense, but I don't see a top-10 finish this year in Norman.”

OSU comes in outside Top 25

Mike Gundy and Oklahoma State come in at No. 26 in the FPI ratings (7.6).

As of now, the FPI considers Kansas the best team in the remade Big 12, placing it at No. 17 with an 11.2 rating.

The Big 12 has the lowest national championship probability of any Power Four conference (3.6%) and fifth overall when independents like Notre Dame are considered (5.1%).

Kansas is the favorite in the Big 12 clubhouse, though, with 1.1% national championship odds. That ranks 15th-best nationally.

Kansas State is considered the second best team in the Big 12, ranking No. 22 in FPI rating (10.0).

ESPN writer Chris Low felt like Oklahoma State was undervalued by the FPI.

“Oklahoma State at No. 26 is way too low,” he wrote. “Of course, coach Mike Gundy and the Cowboys have been at their best when not as much is expected of them. They have everything in place to win the Big 12 championship this season and earn a spot in the playoff after playing in the Big 12 championship game a year ago.

“The Pokes return 21 starters, including the nation's leading rusher from a year ago, Ollie Gordon II, seven offensive linemen who made multiple starts last season, quarterback Alan Bowman, who passed for 3,460 yards in 2023 and big-play linebackers Collin Oliver and Nickolas Martin, who combined for 31.5 tackles for loss a year ago.

ESPN’s Jake Trotter gave OSU the best odds of making a CFP run of any Power Five team outside of the Top 25 in FPI.

“Oklahoma State boasts the reigning Doak Walker Award winner in Gordon, an excellent receiving duo in Brennan Presley and Rashod Owens, an experienced offensive line and a veteran QB in Bowman,” he wrote.

“Gundy's teams almost always improve over the course of the season. And the Pokes no longer have to stress over the Sooners standing in the way. The Big 12 is wide open with several potential contenders. But Oklahoma State has as good a chance as anyone of coming out on top.”

What about TU?

Kevin Wilson and Tulsa, meanwhile, come in at No. 101 out of 134 teams in the FPI.

The Golden Hurricane rank ninth out of 14 American Athletic Conference teams in the FPI.

If TU can surprise some people, though, the door could be open for a CFP trip. The AAC has the highest odds of getting a team into the CFP among all Group of Five conferences (41%) with UTSA the current favorite (15.8%).

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